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Vaccines

Herd immunity — an argument meant to make us get vaccinated?

Sources: 10 · Article: 13 007 characters

Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi accepts herd immunity as an argument for mandatory vaccination only if it can actually be achieved.

  • Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi explains that, if the proportion of vaccinated people is high enough, an infection can stop spreading.
  • This kind of immunity can also protect people who cannot be vaccinated, for example because of the risk of adverse reactions.
  • Dr Norman Pieniążek rejects this concept in the case of coronaviruses, which mutate constantly.

What the authors write

Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi

If the proportion of vaccinated people is high enough, herd immunity can cause an infection to die out instead of spreading through the population.

„If a high enough proportion of the population has received such a vaccine, then the result should be herd immunity: the likelihood of each case of the infection to spawn another case—the basic reproductive number—will drop below 1, which means that the infection will peter out rather than tear through the entire population.”If a high enough proportion of the population has received such a vaccine, then the result should be herd immunity: the likelihood of each case of the infection to spawn another case—the basic reproductive number—will drop below 1, which means that the infection will peter out rather than tear through the entire population.
mRNA Vaccine Toxicity — M. Palmer i S. Bhakdi i in. (2023)
Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi

Herd immunity can also protect unvaccinated people, including those for whom vaccination is not recommended; mandatory vaccination of the majority can be justified only if such immunity is achievable.

„An intriguing benefit of herd immunity is that it protects not only the vaccine recipients, but also the non-recipients, including those in whom vaccination is inadvisable, because they are predisposed to adverse reactions to the vaccine. However, it is self-evident that only when herd immunity is actually feasible can a case be made to impose mandatory vaccination on the healthy majority for the sake of protecting the vulnerable few.”An intriguing benefit of herd immunity is that it protects not only the vaccine recipients, but also the non-recipients, including those in whom vaccination is inadvisable, because they are predisposed to adverse reactions to the vaccine. However, it is self-evident that only when herd immunity is actually feasible can a case be made to impose mandatory vaccination on the healthy majority for the sake of protecting the vulnerable few.
mRNA Vaccine Toxicity — M. Palmer i S. Bhakdi i in. (2023)
Dr Norman Pieniążek

Dr Norman Pieniążek argues that herd immunity does not apply to constantly mutating coronaviruses.

„Orthodox immunology was ignored – herd immunity is a fiction given there is a ‘soup’ of constantly mutating coronaviruses. Why didn’t scientists at the CDC question things early in 2020? Work-from-home restrictions meant that people at CDC couldn’t communicate and coordinate to overturn the madness being imposed from the ‘sixth floor’ top brass.”Orthodox immunology was ignored – herd immunity is a fiction given there is a ‘soup’ of constantly mutating coronaviruses. Why didn’t scientists at the CDC question things early in 2020? Work-from-home restrictions meant that people at CDC couldn’t communicate and coordinate to overturn the madness being imposed from the ‘sixth floor’ top brass.
A Revealing Dialogue with a Former CDC Scientist

Research from PubMed · Europe PMC

We selected 5 studies with the best, positive results. This is a selection, not a full review of all research.

Total number of studies on this topic in PubMed: 3 797.

Including herd immunity made vaccines look more cost-effective in analyses.

Aim of the study: Herd immunity (HI) is a key benefit of vaccination programs, but the effects are not routinely included in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). This study investigated how the inclusion of HI in CEAs may influence the reported value of immunizations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and illustrated the implications for COVID-19 immunization.

Results: Among the 243 immunization CEAs meeting inclusion criteria, 44 studies (18%) included HI. Of those studies, 11 (25%) used dynamic transmission models, whereas the remainder used static models. Sixteen studies allowed for ICER calculations with and without HI (n = 48 ratios). The inclusion of HI always resulted in more favorable ratios. In 20 cases (42%), adding HI decreased the ICERs enough to cross at least one or more common cost-effectiveness benchmarks for LMICs. Among pneumococcal vaccination studies, including HI in the analyses decreased seven of 24 ICERs enough to cross at least one cost-effectiveness benchmark. The full value of immunization may be underestimated without considering a scenario in which HI is achieved. Given the evidence in pneumococcal CEAs, COVID-19 vaccine value assessments should aim to show ICERs with and without HI to inform decision-making in LMICs.

Herd Immunity Effects in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses among Low- and Middle-Income Countries. · Appl Health Econ Health Policy 2022
Money for the studyuniversity or foundation · Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Do the authors have ties to companies?yes — the authors reported it
Did a manufacturer help with the study?YES
Type of studyreview of many studies

“Not stated” does not mean nobody paid — the database does not always record it.

During the Delta variant epidemic, indirect protection associated with vaccination helped prevent infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Aim of the study: Vaccines not only directly protect vaccinated individuals but also contribute to protecting the entire population via indirect herd-immunity benefits. However, researchers have long struggled to quantify these indirect effects at the population level, hindering the assessment of vaccination programme effectiveness.

Results: By modelling a non-vaccination counterfactual, we conservatively estimate 315 000 infections were averted (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 231k-406k), as well as 33 400 hospitalizations (95% BCI: 22k-46k), and 4900 deaths (95% BCI: 2.8k-7.2k). These are 4.0, 7.5 and 8.0 times higher, respectively, than observed. Half of the averted infections and around one-quarter of hospitalizations and deaths were attributable to indirect protection. Homogeneous vaccination across local government areas could have reduced outcomes by approximately 25%.

Quantifying the direct and indirect impact of COVID-19 vaccination: evidence from Victoria, Australia. · J R Soc Interface 2026
Money for the studygovernment, public institutions · Australian Research Council (ARC)
Do the authors have ties to companies?not stated
Did a manufacturer help with the study?unknown
Type of studyobservation of people
Participants6 440 000

“Not stated” does not mean nobody paid — the database does not always record it.

Higher immunity in the local area was associated with a lower risk of COVID-19 diagnosis and death among people without individual immunity.

Aim of the study: Empirical evidence on the indirect herd benefits of COVID-19 vaccination and/or prior infection is limited. We examined how area-level immunity interacts with individual-level immunity to affect COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths.

Results: lowest quintiles) was associated with lower odds of COVID-19 diagnosis. Higher area-level immunity (highest vs. lowest quintiles) was also associated with lower hazard of COVID-19 death among non-immune individuals (hazard ratio, 0.77 [0.60, 1.00]). Findings provide evidence supporting the herd benefits of vaccination or prior infection on COVID-19 diagnosis and deaths, and provide insights for interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates in the context of herd immunity.

Examining the interaction between area-level immunity coverage and individual-level immunity to help quantify indirect herd benefits: a population-based retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths. · Am J Epidemiol 2026
Money for the studycompany together with others · Canadian Institutes of Health Research, ICES, Ontario Health Data Platform (OHDP)
Do the authors have ties to companies?no — the authors say so
Did a manufacturer help with the study?NO
Type of studyobservation of people
Participants11 122 816

“Not stated” does not mean nobody paid — the database does not always record it.

Information about herd immunity associated with vaccination increased stated willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19.

Aim of the study: An effective vaccine against COVID-19 is a desired solution to curb the spread of the disease. However, vaccine hesitancy might hinder high uptake rates and thus undermine efforts to eliminate COVID-19 once an effective vaccine became available. The present contribution addresses this issue by examining two ways of increasing the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19.

Results: In Study 1 (N = 310), the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19 was correlated with knowledge about and belief in herd immunity through vaccination (r = .58, p < .001), as well as with empathy for those most vulnerable to the virus (r = .26, p < .001). In Study 2 (N = 2,005), information about herd immunity through vaccination (Cohen's d = .13, p = .003) and empathy (Cohen's d = .22, p < .001) independently promoted vaccination intention. The motivation to get vaccinated against COVID-19 was related to and could be causally promoted by both mere information about herd immunity through vaccination and by empathy. As such, the present research provides a better understanding of the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Information about herd immunity through vaccination and empathy promote COVID-19 vaccination intentions. · Health Psychol 2022
Money for the studynot stated
Do the authors have ties to companies?not stated
Did a manufacturer help with the study?unknown
Type of studyother
Participants2 315

“Not stated” does not mean nobody paid — the database does not always record it.

In the study, stated willingness to get vaccinated against influenza was higher when vaccination was presented as a way to protect others.

Aim of the study: Promoting vaccine uptake is challenging. This research aimed to experimentally test the effect of communication strategies on influenza vaccine uptake intention. We hypothesized that the effect of descriptive norm level (10%-50%-90% of others vaccinated) on intention would vary according to whether the benefits are focused on the individual (self-interest motives) or others (herd-immunity motives).

Results: As expected, a significant simple quadratic effect of norm was obtained in the herd-immunity condition. No linear effect was found in the self-interest condition. A main effect of motives was found: The intention was higher in the herd-immunity condition than in the self-interest condition. Sensitivity analysis showed that our results are robust, except for the simple quadratic effect in the herd-immunity condition. Herd-immunity motive is more motivating to induce intention to vaccinate against influenza. The effect of norms appears to depend on the motive, and average levels of norms seem to be more motivating than very low and very high levels. The way vaccination is presented can influence adoption rates, and this should be considered when vaccination rates are communicated in the media. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Herd immunity versus self-interest motives and norms effects on influenza vaccination intention. · Health Psychol 2024
Money for the studynot stated
Do the authors have ties to companies?not stated
Did a manufacturer help with the study?unknown
Type of studyother

“Not stated” does not mean nobody paid — the database does not always record it.

Perspectives and opinion materials

The content below presents the authors’ opinions, interpretations and hypotheses. It is not treated as equal to scientific studies and systematic reviews.

Orthomolecular Medicine News Service Opinion material
„Herd immunity cannot apply to vaccines which afford protection against bacterial endotoxins and so herd immunity cannot possibly occur with tetanus and diphtheria vaccines. The spread of diphtheria has been controlled by isolating sufferers and treating them with antibiotics. Herd immunity is impossible to achieve with influenza vaccine because the flu virus is constantly evolving and changes every year. Herd immunity has not occurred with pneumococcal vaccines because other serotypes (at least 90) have filled the niche evacuated by vaccine serotypes (at least 13).”Herd immunity cannot apply to vaccines which afford protection against bacterial endotoxins and so herd immunity cannot possibly occur with tetanus and diphtheria vaccines. The spread of diphtheria has been controlled by isolating sufferers and treating them with antibiotics. Herd immunity is impossible to achieve with influenza vaccine because the flu virus is constantly evolving and changes every year. Herd immunity has not occurred with pneumococcal vaccines because other serotypes (at least 90) have filled the niche evacuated by vaccine serotypes (at least 13).
Vaccine Science and Myth
Orthomolecular Medicine News Service Opinion material
„Herd Immunity: Mass vaccination creates herd immunity, which reduces the spread of disease and protects individuals who cannot be vaccinated due to underlying medical conditions. Reduction in hospitalizations and medical costs: Disease prevention through vaccination reduces the burden of disease on society, which in turn reduces the need for hospitalizations and the associated cost of healthcare. The known risks of vaccines are: Side effects: As with any medication, vaccines can have adverse side effects.”Herd Immunity: Mass vaccination creates herd immunity, which reduces the spread of disease and protects individuals who cannot be vaccinated due to underlying medical conditions. Reduction in hospitalizations and medical costs: Disease prevention through vaccination reduces the burden of disease on society, which in turn reduces the need for hospitalizations and the associated cost of healthcare. The known risks of vaccines are: Side effects: As with any medication, vaccines can have adverse side effects.
Considerations about the Children's Immunization Program
Orthomolecular Medicine News Service Opinion material
„As noted in almost every page, those behavioral insights are based on MINDSPACE framework that one can find and download for further reading [4] Emphasizing the importance of vaccination to achieve herd immunity as if it is the only way to achieve this goal and ignoring the fact that herd immunity is almost achieved in many spots of the world. It appears this is meant to add pressure while pushing people to take the jab. One can easily grasp that exactly the same behavioral messaging has been used upon the population with lockdowns, PCR testing, mask wearing and social distancing.”As noted in almost every page, those behavioral insights are based on MINDSPACE framework that one can find and download for further reading [4] Emphasizing the importance of vaccination to achieve herd immunity as if it is the only way to achieve this goal and ignoring the fact that herd immunity is almost achieved in many spots of the world. It appears this is meant to add pressure while pushing people to take the jab. One can easily grasp that exactly the same behavioral messaging has been used upon the population with lockdowns, PCR testing, mask wearing and social distancing.
Behavioral Change Strategies Push Nationwide Vaccination

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